WTO Predicts Stable Global Trade in 2025, But Experts Warn of Looming Crisis

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has sounded the alarm on rising trade tensions, warning that escalating policy uncertainty and potential new tariffs could derail the fragile global trade recovery in 2025. While its latest Goods Trade Barometer suggests that global merchandise trade remained stable in late 2024 and showed signs of growth in early 2025, the WTO cautioned that geopolitical risks and protectionist measures could trigger a sharp downturn.

The trade indicator inched up slightly to 102.8, signaling above-trend trade growth, but experts believe this uptick may be artificially driven by businesses stockpiling goods ahead of expected tariff hikes. If true, demand could plummet later in the year, leading to a sudden economic slowdown.

Regional trade disparities further complicate the outlook while North America and Asia outperformed expectations, European trade lagged behind, reflecting a sluggish economic environment. Meanwhile, protectionist rhetoric from major economies threatens to disrupt global supply chains

Potentially triggering retaliatory measures that could cripple international trade.

Despite optimistic data on automotive products, container shipping, and air freight, the WTO warns that a dip in export orders could signal an impending trade crisis. As businesses and policymakers brace for a possible wave of tariffs and economic shocks, the question remains will global trade continue its fragile recovery, or is the world on the brink of a major commercial meltdown?