A chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr Mashood Olumide Abiola, has dismissed the proposed alliance between Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso under the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), describing it as politically weak in Northern Nigeria and predicting that President Bola Tinubu would win the 2027 presidential election by a wider margin.
Mr Abiola, a political analyst and former Oyo State governorship aspirant, made the remarks during People’s Voice on VOP TV on Wednesday, arguing that Kwankwaso’s decision to serve as Obi’s running mate could alienate supporters in his northern political base.
He maintained that the proposed alliance would struggle to attract votes in Kano State, where Kwankwaso previously enjoyed considerable political influence.
“Kwankwaso running with Obi on a joint ticket is abnormal. Many of our brothers up North find it difficult to comprehend why a former presidential candidate who won Kano State would agree to be a running mate to Obi. For many people in the North, it is a no-go area and a non-starter,” Mr Abiola said.
“Come January 2027, the votes in Kano will not go to them because of discontent against that ticket.”
APC chieftain questions Opposition’s northern support
Mr Abiola argued that Kwankwaso possessed greater political influence in the North than Obi, whom he claimed faced resistance among voters in several regions.
He also alleged that some voters in Kano associated Mr Obi with the activities of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), a perception he said could undermine the proposed alliance’s prospects in the state.
“Kwankwaso is politically heavier than Obi,” he said, adding that the political contest in Kano would primarily be between the APC and the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
The APC chieftain further argued that the circumstances that contributed to the opposition’s performance in the 2023 presidential election, including the naira redesign policy, fuel scarcity and alleged internal divisions within the ruling party, would not be repeated in 2027.
He predicted that President Tinubu would secure a more decisive victory, claiming that the APC had strengthened its political position since the last election.
“Tinubu will not only win, he will win with a very wide margin,” Mr Abiola said.
He also challenged Obi’s account of his financial record as Anambra State governor, alleging that the former governor left unpaid loans and workers’ liabilities. These claims were presented by Mr Abiola during the broadcast.
Opposition analyst accuses APC of fearing the alliance
However, a social and political analyst, Caesar Francis, offered a contrasting assessment, arguing that the proposed Obi-Kwankwaso ticket could pose a serious challenge to the ruling party in 2027.
Speaking live from the United Kingdom during the same VOP TV programme, Mr Francis accused the Tinubu administration of being concerned about the opposition alliance and alleged that the government was using its influence to weaken opposition parties and attract politicians through defections.
“If there is anybody that APC is scared of, it is this particular ticket. Tinubu knows that Peter Obi is a man of influence whom Nigerians love effortlessly,” Mr Francis said.
He argued that Obi retained significant public support despite the controversies surrounding the 2023 presidential election, adding that the alliance could combine the former Anambra governor’s appeal with Kwankwaso’s political experience and northern support base.
Mr Francis described the proposed ticket as “dynamic and all-encompassing”, citing Kwankwaso’s experience as a former governor, defence minister and senator, alongside Obi’s record as governor of Anambra State.
Analyst criticises Tinubu’s economic policies
Mr Francis also criticised the APC-led government over the cost of living, poverty and what he described as selective anti-corruption enforcement.
He alleged that politicians facing corruption allegations were welcomed into the ruling party while perceived political opponents were subjected to investigations and prosecution.
The analyst further argued that the availability of fuel did not necessarily translate into economic relief for Nigerians, given the rising cost of living and the difficulty many households faced in meeting basic needs.
“In 2023, they complained about fuel scarcity. Today, we have fuel, but no money to buy it!” he said.
Mr Francis cited poverty figures during the discussion to support his criticism of the administration. However, his broader claim that more than 98 per cent of Nigerians were struggling under extreme poverty was not independently established during the broadcast.
The opposition analyst maintained that economic hardship and dissatisfaction with government policies could influence voting decisions in the 2027 election.
Debate highlights political realignments ahead of 2027
The discussion focused on the changing political landscape in the Northwest following Kwankwaso’s recent grassroots rallies in Kano and Kaduna under the NDC banner.
The host also questioned Mr Abiola about President Tinubu’s participation in national debates during the 2023 campaign and his planned rally schedule.
Mr Abiola responded that the President had prioritised governance over what he described as campaign theatrics.
With political parties positioning themselves ahead of the next general election, the competing arguments reflect an emerging battle over the Obi-Kwankwaso alliance’s appeal, Kwankwaso’s influence in the North and the Tinubu administration’s economic record.
While Mr Abiola predicted a wider APC victory, Mr Francis argued that public dissatisfaction and opposition unity could threaten the ruling party’s prospects. Both assessments remain political opinions rather than established outcomes.
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