Households, traders and workers still waiting as NRS declares economic recovery

Three years after Nigeria’s most painful economic reforms began, the Nigeria Revenue Service says the country has moved from crisis to recovery. For many households, small traders and salary workers, the question remains whether the improving numbers have yet reached their daily lives.

The NRS reports that inflation, which peaked at 34.8 per cent in late 2024, has eased to around 15.9 per cent in 2026. External reserves have risen from under $4 billion to a 17-year high of about $51.9 billion, tax collections have more than doubled to ₦27.1 trillion by July 2026, and GDP growth has climbed from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to roughly 3.8 per cent in the first half of this year. The agency attributes the turnaround to the removal of the fuel subsidy, foreign-exchange unification, tax reforms and other measures introduced after May 2023.

Those same measures produced what the NRS itself describes as significant early hardship. Families absorbed sharp rises in transport, food and energy costs. Many households that stretched budgets during the peak inflation years say the recent moderation in prices has not yet restored the purchasing power they lost. School fees, rent and basic food items still feel expensive relative to incomes that adjusted more slowly than prices rose.

Small traders and informal workers faced a parallel squeeze. Higher fuel and input costs reduced margins for market sellers, commercial drivers and micro-business owners. Greater availability of foreign exchange and the shift toward local refining of petroleum products are cited by the NRS as stabilising factors, yet many in the informal economy report that customer spending remains cautious and restocking is still expensive. The recovery visible in large corporate earnings has not automatically translated into stronger daily trade for those operating at street level.

Salary workers and formal-sector employees also carried the weight of the adjustment period. Real incomes were eroded while inflation ran high. Although stronger government revenue and improved business confidence are now supporting larger firms, many workers say wage increases have lagged and new hiring remains limited. Job security and the ability to cover household costs continue to dominate conversations in offices and factories more than talk of macroeconomic turnaround.

The NRS maintains that the foundation for recovery has been laid and that further gains will become more visible with sustained reform. For households still balancing tight budgets, traders watching thin margins and workers waiting for wages to catch up, the test of that recovery is whether the improving indicators begin to ease the daily pressure that began when the reforms first took effect.