The Ndigbo for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu Forum, NDI-ABAT, says President Bola Tinubu can challenge Peter Obi’s political dominance in the South-East ahead of the 2027 presidential election, but warned the All Progressives Congress not to mistake political appointments, endorsements and rally crowds for actual electoral support.

The forum argued that voters in the South-East are not permanently tied to any political party or presidential candidate.

In a statement issued by its National Coordinator, Okechukwu Isiguzoro, and Secretary-General, Ugwuoke Ugwuoke Jr., the group warned the APC against relying on appearances to measure its strength in the region.

“Political appointments are not electoral victories, rented crowds are not genuine supporters, and public endorsements do not automatically translate into votes,” the forum said.

It cited the 2003 presidential election, when former President Olusegun Obasanjo won all five South-East states despite the candidacy of the late Igbo political leader, Chukwuemeka Ojukwu.

The forum asked, “If Ndigbo could support Obasanjo against Ojukwu in 2003, why should Tinubu be considered incapable of defeating Peter Obi in the Southeast in 2027?”

The group said the APC’s performance in the 2015, 2019 and 2023 presidential elections should force the party to reassess its strategy in the region.

APC urged to address Igbo grievances

The forum said President Tinubu would need to address longstanding grievances among Ndigbo, including concerns over policies implemented under former President Muhammadu Buhari which, according to the group, many Igbo citizens considered discriminatory or exclusionary.

It called for inclusive governance, fairness and visible development, particularly greater infrastructure development, wider economic opportunities, equitable political representation and sustained engagement between the Federal Government and Igbo communities.

“Dangerous disconnect” warned against

NDI-ABAT cautioned that relying on what it described as misleading reports of APC strength could create a “dangerous disconnect” between President Tinubu and voters in the region.

The group therefore urged the President to independently assess the APC’s actual grassroots strength rather than relying solely on assurances from political officeholders.

It also called for stronger local leadership, coordinated grassroots mobilisation and clear commitments to regional development.

2003 election cited as political precedent

The forum’s argument rests heavily on the 2003 presidential election.

Mr Olusegun Obasanjo, who contested under the Peoples Democratic Party, won all five South-East states against Mr Chukwuemeka Ojukwu of the All Progressives Grand Alliance.

According to NDI-ABAT, the result showed that even a prominent Igbo political figure could not automatically translate regional identity or popularity into electoral dominance. The group said political loyalties can change when voters and political leaders consider wider national interests.

Tinubu must first earn voters’ confidence

Despite its support for President Tinubu, the forum acknowledged that the South-East remains difficult political terrain for the APC.

It argued that the party’s route to expanding its support cannot be based simply on endorsements or political appointments.

“But the APC must first earn the confidence of the people. No political party can win the hearts of voters by ignoring their grievances, misleading its leadership or taking their loyalty for granted,” the statement read.

The group said its support for Mr Tinubu’s re-election was based on its belief that sustained engagement between the Federal Government and Ndigbo could advance the interests of the region within a united Nigeria.

The intervention highlights one of the major political battles expected ahead of the 2027 presidential election: whether President Tinubu can significantly increase the APC’s support in a region where Peter Obi recorded strong backing in the 2023 election.

NDI-ABAT said it would continue promoting engagement between Mr Tinubu and communities across the South-East and has proposed a data-driven strategy involving grassroots organisation, electoral data and measurable political engagement across Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo states.