A United States-based policy advisory and lobbying firm, Von Batten-Montague-York, has said President Bola Tinubu could potentially face criminal charges in the United States after leaving office.
The firm linked its assessment to ongoing legal proceedings involving requests for the release of records held by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) concerning a decades-old investigation into alleged heroin trafficking.
However, the firm acknowledged that the court filings it reviewed do not establish that the US government intends to charge Tinubu.
What the US firm is saying
Von Batten-Montague-York said the FBI and DEA had been asked to confirm that no investigation or enforcement proceeding relating to the allegations remains active.
According to the firm, the agencies declined to confirm or deny whether a law-enforcement investigation or proceeding may exist.
The firm interpreted the agencies’ refusal as potentially significant, arguing that it could leave open the possibility of further action.
Based on its reading of the filings, the firm said Tinubu could face criminal charges after leaving office, when presidential immunity no longer applies.
The firm stressed, however, that the agencies’ refusal to confirm the existence of an investigation does not itself prove that charges are coming.
What is the US court case about?
The current legal dispute centres on Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests seeking records from US agencies relating to investigations dating back to the early 1990s.
American transparency activist Aaron Greenspan filed requests seeking records from several US federal agencies.
The case has involved attempts to obtain records from the FBI and DEA concerning their historical investigations.
A US federal judge previously ruled that the agencies had not sufficiently established a basis for keeping secret the fact that Tinubu was a subject of a criminal investigation.
The latest proceedings therefore concern the release of government records, rather than a criminal prosecution against Tinubu.
Tinubu’s 1993 US forfeiture case
The allegations have their roots in a 1993 US case involving the forfeiture of $460,000 connected to Tinubu.
Tinubu has consistently denied wrongdoing and has maintained that the case was a civil forfeiture proceeding rather than a criminal prosecution.
His legal representatives have argued that he was never arrested, indicted, tried or convicted of a drug offence in the United States.
The distinction is important because a civil forfeiture proceeding does not, by itself, establish that an individual was criminally convicted.
Why the issue is resurfacing
The matter has gained renewed attention because of the ongoing US court proceedings over the release of historical FBI and DEA records.
Tinubu recently joined a US Department of Justice request for additional time to respond to a motion concerning the release of the records. His lawyers asked that his response remain on the same schedule as the government defendants.
The development has also become politically significant in Nigeria, with the records and allegations being discussed in the context of Tinubu’s political future and the 2027 presidential election.
What it means for Nigerians
The latest claim has generated renewed debate over accountability, presidential immunity and whether allegations dating back decades could have consequences after a Nigerian president leaves office.
However, there is currently an important distinction between an allegation or prediction of possible prosecution and an actual criminal charge.
There is no confirmation in the reports reviewed that US authorities have charged Tinubu with a criminal offence or announced plans to prosecute him after he leaves office.
The current court proceedings are focused on access to government records.
What happens next?
The immediate issue before the US court remains the dispute over the release of FBI and DEA records.
Whether those records contain information that could lead to further legal action remains uncertain.
For now, the suggestion that Tinubu could face criminal charges after leaving office remains the assessment of Von Batten-Montague-York and should not be presented as a confirmed decision by US prosecutors.
The Presidency and Tinubu’s legal team have previously rejected allegations of criminal wrongdoing relating to the historical US case.
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